Dovish Stance from US Fed Boosts SS Futures, Stainless Steel Scrap Prices Hold Steady but Face Production Cuts and Downside Risks from Steel Mills [SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Market Weekly Review]

This week, the price of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China held steady at 8,950-9,050 yuan/mt, while in Foshan, it rose slightly to 8,800-9,100 yuan/mt. Currently, calculated by raw material, the production cost of stainless steel using entirely stainless steel scrap was approximately 12,647.37 yuan/mt, and the cost using entirely high-grade NPI was approximately 12,909.16 yuan/mt. This week, a steel mill in south China did not adjust its tax-included procurement price for 304 stainless steel scrap.

This week, as the US Fed delivered dovish remarks, expectations for a December interest rate cut strengthened, and SS futures showed a strengthening upward trend. High-carbon ferrochrome prices also edged higher due to relatively high tender prices from major stainless steel mills. However, NPI remained weak, with prices pulling back. Overall market expectations for the future were not optimistic, and stainless steel scrap prices remained generally stable throughout the week. Currently, although the economic advantage of stainless steel scrap narrowed slightly amid continuously falling NPI prices, it still maintained an economic advantage of over 20 yuan/mtu. During the year-end off-season, despite positive macro news this week leading to some recovery in stainless steel market transactions, the overall weak downstream demand situation did not reverse. Steel mills still faced losses, and recent news indicated production cuts from several stainless steel mills. In the weak market, stainless steel scrap prices still faced some downside risk, but with current prices already at low levels and their economic advantage, the room for a pullback was expected to be relatively small.